MG 315 Park University Advanced Business Statistics What Affects Graduation Grade Average Points Capstone Hi there, The final revision of the paper is due

MG 315 Park University Advanced Business Statistics What Affects Graduation Grade Average Points Capstone Hi there,

The final revision of the paper is due this week. I’ve attached a couple examples that my instructor sent to the class. Below is the feedback I received regarding the draft paper I turned in:

Add title page addressing use of your regression model. Use table of contents. Added subheads. Added purpose statement. Your regression equation has at least three independent variables. Added cited definition of variables. Your data matrix has at least 30 rows. You have columns of data, one for each variable. Good bibliography. You did follow APA style throughout, and in your written portion. Well done.

If you need me to send a copy of the draft paper you did for me just let me know. Thank you so much!!!

I also attached examples of the final paper. What variables affect foreclosure filings?
EC315
U.S. Foreclosures
Feasibility Project
Prepared for
Mr. Thomas Hiestand
Park University
Prepared by
Jessica Tipton
Park University
Jessica Tipton
Quantitative Research Methods
12 January 2009
1
What variables affect foreclosure filings?
2
Purpose Statement & Background
The United States foreclosure crisis is said to be the worst financial disaster since the
great depression. (Reinhart, 2008) John A. Tatom, Director of Research at Networks Financial
Institute at Indiana State University writes that rising foreclosure filings and excessive personal
debt have created the greatest short-term threat to the U.S. economy. This study will examine
these and other variables responsible for the rise in foreclosure filings throughout the United
States.
The dependent variable, U.S. Foreclosures Filings (US_FORCLSURE) is determined by
independent variables, High Un-employment rate (UNEPLY_RATE), high revolving debt
(REVOLV_DEBT), divorce (DIVORCE) and Death (DEATH).
The most important independent variable in this relationship is rise in unemployment
rates because the more people who lose their jobs the more likely those sample individuals will
begin the foreclosure process and eventually lose their home.
Definition of Variables & Data Description
Y = X1 + X2 + X3 + X4
US_FORCLSURE = UNEPLY_RATE + REVOLV_DEBT + DIVORCE + DEATH
•
Dependent Variable:
a. U.S. Foreclosures Filing (Y: US_FORCLSURE)- The dependent variable, U.S.
Foreclosures Filings, is used in the cause and affect relationship presented throughout
the project. The following independent variables will be used to determine the most
significant factor in U.S. foreclosure filings. This data is collected every month from
more than 2,200 counties by RealtyTrac®. RealtyTrac® compiles this nationwide
data and reports a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure
filing reported.
What variables affect foreclosure filings?
•
3
Primary Independent Variable:
a. Rising Unemployment (X1: UNEPLY_RATE)- Rising unemployment rates is the
primary independent variable because I believe that as the national employment rate
continues to rise so will the number of foreclosure filings. The data used to represent
the relationship was provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and collected
monthly.
The first resource that solidifies my belief comes from cnnmoney.com. Les
Christie describes in the article, “Mounting Job Losses Fueling Foreclosures,” the
correlation between unemployment rates and the rise in U.S. Foreclosures. He
explains that the more individuals lose their jobs the more the delinquency trend will
continue. (Christie, 2008)
In the article, “2008 Foreclosure Filings Set Record,” Stephanie Armour
recognizes the relationship between job loss and foreclosure filings. She clarifies that
even though interest rates decreased, the number of those filing for foreclosure
continued to rise between 2007 and 2008 resulting in an 81% increase. The former
federal deputy Housing Commissioner under President Clinton is quoted saying,
“with foreclosures continuing to rise and the economy in a downward spiral, it’s not
surprising you see increased foreclosure because of increased unemployment.”
(Armour, 2009)
•
Independent Variables:
a. Divorce (X2: DIVORCE)- Divorce is another leading cause in the number of
foreclosure filings, if a marriage is dissolved then there is less revolving revenue for
the family and they then run the risk of foreclosure. This data was compiled through
the Center for Disease Control and Prevention & National Center for Health
What variables affect foreclosure filings?
4
Statistics. These government agencies use a series of surveys to compile monthly data
on divorce records. These records are compiled monthly and are represented by the
thousands.
b. Death (X3:DEATH)- The death statistics used for this project have been recorded by
Center for Disease Control and Prevention & National Center for Health Statistics.
Surveys are used to obtain and compile monthly data. These records are assembled
monthly and are denoted by the thousands. These statistics are important as if a
primary spouse dies then the family is at risk of becoming delinquent in his/her
mortgage payments.
c. Consumer Credit Outstanding (X4:REVOLV_DEBT) – When individuals live
beyond his/her means the amount of money placed in a revolving credit card becomes
more than is manageable. The minimum balance that was once reasonable becomes
unrealistic and the family is then susceptible to foreclosure. These debts could include
from car loans, credit cards and student loans. This data is compiled by the Federal
Reserve and has been collected on a monthly basis from January 1968 to November
2008. For this project, the investigation will include the data from June 1006 to
November 2008.
Presentation and Interpretation of Results
Estimated (prediction) equation
The results are:
Ŷ = -1,229,444.4414 + 15853.9372 X1 + 1.4785 X2 + 2.8838X3 -1.0534 X4
What variables affect foreclosure filings?
5
Identify and Interpret the Adjusted R2
An adjusted coefficient of multiple determination is used to “balance the effect that the
number of independent variables has on the coefficient of multiple determination.” (Lind,
Marchal W., and Wathen, S., 2008, p. 449) The adjusted R2 in this project’s model of 0.856 (see
Appendix B) signifies a strong association between the independent variables of unemployment
rates, outstanding consumer credit, number of divorces, and number of deaths and dependent
variable of U.S. foreclosure rates.
Identify and Interpret the F Test
H0 : 1 =  2 =  3 =  4 = 0
H1 : Not all  i ‘ s are 0
The p-value is 1.01E-07 or .000000101. (see Appendix B)
Using a .05 significance level, the p-value is significantly smaller than the significance
level. Since the p-value is smaller than the significance level, H0 is rejected and accept the
alternate hypothesis of not all independent variables are 0. The rejection of H0 means at least one
regression coefficient is not 0 and therefore, some of the independent variables do have the
ability to explain the variation in the dependent variable, U.S. Foreclosure Filings.
Identify and Interpret the t Tests for Each of the Coefficients
Un-Employment Rates (UNEPLY_RATE)
Ho: 1 = 0
H1: 1 does not equal 0
Let α = 0.05
Testing at the .05 significance level:
N – (k + 1) = 22 – (4 + 1) = 17 degrees of freedom
What variables affect foreclosure filings?
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Reject H0 if t > 2.110 or t 2.110 or t 2.110 or t 2.110 or t