ECN501 Grantham Supply and Demand Dynamics Article Discussion By applying the demand and supply model, analyze the impact of events in the article on the m

ECN501 Grantham Supply and Demand Dynamics Article Discussion By applying the demand and supply model, analyze the impact of events in the article on the market price and quantity of copper. First identify which side of the market (demand or supply) will affected by the specific event, then analyze whether the market price and quantity would go up or down. See “Copper: Supply and Demand Economics” by Erik Norland. ERIK NORLAND, SENIOR ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CME GROUP
27 JANUARY 2016
Copper: Supply and
Demand Dynamics
All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation
purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those
of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be
considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX copper futures made headlines in early January by
falling below $2/lb for the first time since 2009. The metal
recently traded as much as 57% off its peak levels from 2011.
This paper explores why copper prices have collapsed, and
what might be in store for the metal in 2016 and beyond.
Generally, when people discuss copper, most of the focus
is on the demand side. Indeed, the slowdown in China, a
major consumer of the metal, is a key reason why copper is
under pressure. But, one must not overlook the supply side.
Copper-mining supply doubled between 1994 and 2014,
and probably held steady or continued to grow in 2015.
What’s even more notable is that copper supplies might keep
growing despite the collapse in prices, as they did in 20082010 when production rose about 3% despite the price
plunge during the financial crisis (Figure 1).
Supply Side Coppernomics: Increasing Supplies Cause
Prices to Slide
It’s no secret why mining supply has increased so dramatically
since 1994: mining copper is, or at least was, highly profitable.
From 2011 to 2014, the total cost of producing one pound of
copper hovered around $2. By comparison, prices averaged
above $4 per lb in 2011, and over $3 per lb from 2012 to 2014.
Even in 2015, copper prices averaged close to $2.50 per lb,
roughly 25% above the cost of production. Only now, at the
beginning of 2016, have prices come down to what had been
the all-in cost of production back in the 2011-2014 period
(Figure 2).
Figure 2: Production costs and selling prices in USD
(cents) / lb.
Figure 1: Mining supply has doubled since 1994.
Copper Production Costs and Selling Prices
Copper Mining Supply
450
20000
400
18000
Average Selling Price for 2011 – 2015, opening price for 2016
350
16000
300
USd Per Pound
Millions of Tons
14000
12000
10000
8000
250
Total Cost of Production
200
Net Cash Cost
150
6000
100
4000
50
2000
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
97
2011
98
19
19
95
96
19
19
19
94
0
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2013 and 2015, Bloomberg Professional (HG1),
CME Group Economic Research Calculations
1
It’s tempting to say that with copper prices as low as they are
currently, that mining companies will cut back on production.
But, the jury’s still out. What complicates the analysis is the
fact that we don’t have production-cost numbers for 2015 yet,
but there are three reasons to think that they fell significantly:
Figure 3:
1) The currencies of copper-producing nations have fallen
dramatically: down 10.4% in 2014 from 2013, and down
by 13.4% in 2015 from 2014 (see appendix for details).
This should reduce the labor costs of producing copper
across much of the copper mining world, not least of all in
Chile, which supplies 31% of the world’s copper ore.
2) Mining companies are cutting costs: from 2003 to 2014,
the focus was mainly on adding production to keep pace
with soaring demand, notably from China. With demand
growth tapering off, or even declining, the new focus will
be on reducing unit cost of production.
3) Energy prices have collapsed, and mining/refining copper
is highly energy intensive.
As such, our guess is that while investment in future copper
production is likely to decline, potentially depressing mining
production in the 2020s, copper production over the next
several years is most likely to either flatline or increase further.
Appendix:
These six variables account for about 42% of the movement
in copper prices over the period from January 2006 to
December 2015 (Figure 3). The strongest influence on copper,
by far, is oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate crude
(WTI). A 10% rise (fall) in oil prices correlated with a 2.9% rise
(fall) in copper prices, with a 0.8% standard deviation and
given the other factors. Movements in the S&P 500® exerted
the second strongest influence on copper: a 10% rise in the
S&P tended to send copper prices about 3.9% higher, on
average, with a 1.8% standard deviation, given the other
factors. Chinese stocks, measured by the FTSE China A50,
also had an influence but not as strongly. Copper also
correlates with the U.S. dollar (USD). A weak USD tends to
mean higher copper prices and vice versa. Finally, copper
exhibits a fairly modest, and, by most measures, not a
statistically significant negative response to Fed rate hikes.
These factors go a long way toward explaining why copper
has done so badly: oil prices have collapsed, USD has soared,
equity prices have stagnated in the United States and fallen
in China, and the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nearly a
decade in December. But what’s the outlook going forward?
Which Financial and Commodity Market Forces Drive
Copper Prices?
In order to answer this question, we did a simple regression
analysis using 10 years’ worth of monthly price-change data
for copper and regressing six different market factors:
Oil prices: We see oil prices as being in the process of
forming a bottom, which is not the same as saying that they
have already hit bottom. U.S. production may have peaked
in 2015 and might begin to decline in 2016. The decline in
North Sea production that began around the year 2000 will
likely accelerate. Middle Eastern and Russian production
will probably continue at full tilt, but potential geopolitical
instability, especially in the Middle East and Venezuela, poses
increasingly significant upside risks.
2
China and the equity markets: While U.S. stocks exerted
the strongest influence on copper prices during the period
from 2006 to 2015 (on average), questions over the direction
of Chinese stocks loom large in the copper market as we begin
2016. China has numerous challenges and its troubles boil
down to a number of intermediate-to-long-term problems:
Figure 4: China’s Private Sector More Highly Leveraged
Than its Emerging Market Peers.
Private and Public Sector Debt
250
Government
Private
200
Debt as a % of GDP
150
100
50
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Ru
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In
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Br
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Po
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In
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Cz
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h
Th
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Re
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Ar
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in
So
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Af
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Ch
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Just to reiterate, we see oil prices mainly as a supply-side
issue for copper. Mining and refining are both energy-intensive
businesses. While oil isn’t the only or even the main source of
energy that these operations require, lower prices for crude
and refined products will likely reduce the cost of operating
mines and metals refining operations. This will marginally
boost supply by reducing the breakeven point of copper
businesses worldwide. Oil’s impact on the demand side is
more mixed. It will hurt demand in countries that are net oil
exporters, including the Persian Gulf nations, Russia and
parts of Latin America, and Africa. On the other hand, lower
oil prices are likely to boost economic activity and, therefore,
copper demand in the non-oil exporting world, which
accounts for roughly 86% of global GDP.
Source: “Deleveraging, What Deleveraging?” Buttiglione et al, International Center for
Monetary and Banking Studies
1) China is beginning a structural slowdown as its
productivity-enhancing rural-to-urban transition passes
the half-way mark, and as its population ages.
The S&P 500® is a more complex picture. On the negative
side, U.S. corporate earnings appear to have stalled and might
start to decline. Declining earnings won’t necessarily cause
stocks prices to drop right away, but might eventually lead to a
bear market or, at least, to greatly increased market volatility.
Overall, the equity picture and its influence on copper might
grow more negative as 2016 progresses.
2) China has exceptionally high levels of private sector debt
(Figure 4), which are weighing on economic growth and
hurting Chinese stocks, which have a very high weighting
to the financial services sector (69% of the FTSE China
A50 Index market capitalization).
Currency: For the reasons outlined above, the Chinese
currency might fall quite dramatically versus USD in the
coming months and could put other currencies under
downward pressure as well. If this does indeed occur, it will
likely be bad news for copper.
3) The Renminbi is overvalued and probably needs to fall
further significantly.
On the other hand, those with an economic stake in being
‘long’ copper might be cheered by the performance of the
euro and yen versus USD. Neither currency moved much after
the Fed rate hike.
4) China’s growth model depends heavily on private and
public investment spending, as well as exports. Exports
have stalled while investment spending is earning
increasingly low returns. China needs to boost consumer
spending to replace its dependence on investment
spending and exports, but doesn’t appear to have a plan
in place to help navigate the transition.
Interest rates: U.S. and China: Fed Funds Futures currently
price an interest rate hike roughly every six months or so, with
the next one most likely to come around June 2016. However,
a number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
members described the December 2015 hike as being a “close
call.” In order for another interest rate hike to happen, we will
need to see a sustained rise in the headline and core rates of
inflation back up towards their 2% target. With oil prices still
collapsing, this might not happen on the time schedule that
the Fed would need to hike rates as quickly as priced by the
market.
3
The more important rates for copper, though, might be
Chinese rates. A complex trade developed for a while with
copper whereby traders used copper as an asset to facilitate
the carry trade between the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) and
USD. Now that RMB controls are set to be loosened, and the
Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) is in the process of cutting
rates even as the Fed gradually tightens, warehousing
copper to facilitate that trade is likely to become less and less
necessary (Figure 5). This could add to downward pressure on
copper prices in 2016.
Figure 5: PBOC likely to ease policy further, possibly
putting copper under more downward pressure.
segments. China has been on a building boom and consumes
roughly one-third of the copper used in construction or about
10% of total world demand (Figure 7). If the Chinese building
boom grinds to a halt, it is not obvious what segment will pick
up the slack. The U.S. housing market’s use of copper pales
in comparison to China’s, and the U.S. construction sector
appears to be growing unevenly, at best. We do expect a
pickup in Europe and Japan but nothing that will compensate
for reduced Chinese demand.
Figure 6: Building construction is the main downside
risk for copper demand.
Copper Demand by Source
PBOC monetary policy tools
Industrial Machinery and
Equipment: 9.4%
25
Consumer and General
Products: 9.8%
20
Building Construction:
30.7%
Reserve
Requirement
Ratio
15
Transportation
Equipment:
11.4%
10
5
Lending Rate
Deposit Rate
Electrical and Electronic
Products: 38.7%
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
97
98
19
19
19
96
0
Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2015
Source: Bloomberg Professional: CNDR1Y, CHLR12M and CHRRDEP
As such, the interest rate picture, in our view, remains bearish
for copper, especially on the Chinese side of the equation.
Whether inflation perks up enough in the United States to
convince the Fed to hike rates again remains to be seen.
Figure 7: China accounts for 1/3 of copper used in
building construction = 10% of world total usage.
Copper Demand Trends: Building Construction
7000
Demand Side Coppernomics
What is of greater concern is copper’s use in building
construction, and industrial machinery and equipment
Rest of
the
World
5000
Tousands of Tonnes
Copper faces a fairly mixed demand picture going into
2016. Approximately 45% of the world’s copper ore transits
China, where it is made into a variety of products. The single
largest use of copper is electronic products (Figure 6). On
the positive side from a copper demand perspective, global
demand for electronic goods is likely to continue to grow.
Whether the products are assembled in China or not doesn’t
matter because most of the end users aren’t Chinese
and are, therefore, unlikely to be negatively impacted by
developments in China. Likewise, copper’s use in consumer
and general products, as well as transportation equipment,
is unlikely to be too negatively impacted by slowing demand
growth in China.
6000
4000
USA
Japan
3000
EU-28
2000
China
1000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2015
Overall, we see copper demand as not growing very quickly,
and potentially lagging the growth in supply. As such, it
wouldn’t surprise us if copper prices retest their 2009 lows
around $1.25 per lb at some point in 2016 or 2017. Crude oil,
4
which as we have seen correlates quite positively with copper,
has already retested those yearly lows and might head even
lower before hitting bottom (Figure 8).
Figure 8: Crude oil is back at (or through) its 2009 low
but copper is still holding out.
Crude Oil and Copper
500
COMEX High Grade Copper
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
West Texas Intermediate Crude
5
20
16
20
1
20
13
20
14
1
2
20
1
20
1
20
10
1
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
0
20
0
0
0
20
0
COMEX High Grade Copper in USd/Pound
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil in USD/Barrel
450
Source: Bloomberg Professional (CL1 and HG1)
There are upside risks to copper prices, too. The greatest
upside risks would be positive-growth surprises in China, as
well as a sustained rise in oil or equity markets.
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