Computing Probability for Any Completion Date Attached is a picture of an example that has to be done through excel. operations management example topic: C

Computing Probability for Any Completion Date Attached is a picture of an example that has to be done through excel. operations management example topic: Computing probability for any completion date Example 11
COMPUTING PROBABILITY FOR ANY COMPLETION DATE
Julie Ann Williams wants to find the due date that gives her company’s project a 99% chance of on-time
completion
APPROACH She first needs to compute the Z-value corresponding to 99%, as shown in Figure 3.14.
Mathematically, this is similar to Example 10, except the unknown is now the due date rather than Z.
Probability
of 0.99
Figure 3.14
Z-Value for 99% Probability
of Project Completion at
Milwaukee Paper
Probability
of 0.01
-2.33 Standard
Deviations
0
2.33
SOLUTION Referring again to the Normal Table in Appendix I (alternatively using the Excel
formula =NORMSINV(0.99)), we identify a Z-value of 2.33 as being closest to the probability of 0.99.
That is, Julie Ann Williams’s due date should be 2.33 standard deviations above the mean project com-
pletion time. Starting with the standard normal equation (see Equation (3-9)], we can solve for the due
date and rewrite the equation as:
Due date = Expected completion time + (Z x )
= 15+ (2.33 x 1.76) = 19.1 weeks
(3-10)
INSIGHT If Williams can get the board to agree to give her a new deadline of 19.1 weeks (or more),
she can be 99% sure of finishing the project by that new target date.
LEARNING EXERCISE What due date gives the project a 95% chance of on-time completion?
[Answer: About 17.9 weeks.]
RELATED PROBLEMS 3.21c, 3.23e

Purchase answer to see full
attachment