University of California Irvine Regression Analysis from The Covid-19 Paper The time limit is 36 hours instruction: you should now have the data and thou

University of California Irvine Regression Analysis from The Covid-19 Paper The time limit is 36 hours

instruction:

you should now have the data and thought about the regression. we need to run the main regression(s) of our paper, and write down a section that describes the results.

To be more specific, for the Results section, you should:

– run the regression, and show a Table with regression results (it’s ok to copy and paste the regression results from the software you are using, EVIews, Excel, R, etc.)

– discuss the results. (Arrround 400 words). Do you find a statistically significant effect? What does the effect mean? How large is the effect? Try to explain the results without simply making it a list (don’t simply say, for example, beta0 is equal to 0.05 with standard error 0.02 p-value 0.06, beta1 is equal to…, and so forth, but try to write as if you are explaining the meaning of your results to a classmate). Something that makes the paper even better is if you can connect your results to what similar papers have found (you can just use Google or Google Scholar and check if similar papers have been written).

– remember to look at the stationarity of the variables. In most cases, you will need to take growth rates. If the variables are already in percentage or they are an index or a probability, you can instead just take the first difference (prob(t)-prob(t-1) without dividing by t-1). For those of you who are using stock prices and COVID cases, the growth rates are best for those variables. Running Head: IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO THE ECONOMY RESEARCH PROPOSAL
1
Today, as the novel Covid-19 tears through the biggest cities of America, its grievous
impact is being experienced far beyond the Millions of Americans who have been confirmed
infected. The lockdowns and quarantines that are required to fight the spread of the virus are
evidently freezing the country’s economy, besides, with exceptional speed and force. The stock
market recently has sunk a quarter from its peak on the previous month, obliterating three years
of successful gains.
The main research question
Covid-19 has taken a toll on the U.S and the Universal economy. Throughout history, the
U.S markets ultimately ended their top bull market amid coronavirus qualms. Well, this research
paper will address the following research question:
1. The effects of Covid-19 to the U.S economy and the stock markets.
What data you are going to use
Since consumers play a key role in the U.S economy, their viewpoint and prospects are
prone to be vital for understanding the economy and stock markets’ response to the epidemic.
Therefore within this research paper, we will use different data presented in the Stock Returns,
the John Hopkins University Data, GitHub dataset. We will alternatively use Social media
reports, Google trends, and attention about Covid-19 reports to gather our information.
What regression you plan to run
R t^sp500= β0 + β1 (Covid-19t) + εt
R t ²=2+ βR t^sp500+ y Covid-19 t + εt
IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO THE ECONOMY RESEARCH PROPOSAL
2
This will practically determine the level of Covid-19 throughout the United States, its
daily changing patterns, and its growth across the country.
What results you expect
The proposed methodology will assist in the evaluation of the main epidemiological
parameters in addition to the forecasting of the possible spread of the Covid-19 and the potential
harm that it can cause to the economy and stock market through the use of the available data.
Therefore this can make it easier for determining the best mitigation process that can be initiated.
Continue:
Linear regression analysis
A linear regression analysis was conducted on the Covid-19 and Stock Returns data collected
from John Hopkins University website to show the effect of Covid-19 on the economy whereby
Covid-19 cases was used as the independent variable while Stock Returns was used as the
dependent variable. The table below shows the coefficient results to be used to make a model:
3
IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO THE ECONOMY RESEARCH PROPOSAL
Table 1:
Coefficients
Model
1
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
465.608
93.561
-.035
.027
COVID 19
CASES
Beta
t
.119
Sig.
.027
.978
1.307
.000
a. Dependent Variable: stock returns
Interpretation:
From table 1 above, it is clear that the equation model is as follows:
Y = B0 + B1 Covid-19 cases + Et
Whereby Y represent the Stock Returns, B0 equals the constant (465.608) while B1 equals 0.035 while Et is the error term.
Therefore the final equation can be written as follows:
Stock Returns = 465.608 + (-0.035) COVID-19 CASES
From the equation model, it is clear that Covid-19 cases have impacted negatively (-0.035) the
economy (Stock Returns). From table 1, the p value (0.000) is less than 0.05 hence showing that
this negative impact exists statistically. This therefore means that an increase in Covid-19 cases
results to a decrease in the stock returns (economy) and vice versa.
IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO THE ECONOMY RESEARCH PROPOSAL
4
DATE
COVID 19 CASES
stock returns
Lat
40
72
Long
-100
13
1/22/2020
1
40
1/23/2020
1
2.16
1/24/2020
2
44
1/25/2020
2
82
1/26/2020
5
0
1/27/2020
5
145
1/28/2020
5
32.23
1/29/2020
5
14.78
1/30/2020
5
1
1/31/2020
7
21.44
2/1/2020
8
15
2/2/2020
8
15.61
2/3/2020
11
74.76
2/4/2020
11
8.14
2/5/2020
11
6.58
2/6/2020
11
9.94
2/7/2020
11
9.78
2/8/2020
11
19.88
2/9/2020
11
11.96
2/10/2020
11
40.56
2/11/2020
12
3.93
2/12/2020
12
14.02
2/13/2020
13
11.55
2/14/2020
13
0.06
2/15/2020
13
85.14
2/16/2020
13
28.2
2/17/2020
13
0
2/18/2020
13
0
2/19/2020
13
6.73
2/20/2020
13
3.07
2/21/2020
15
2.5
2/22/2020
15
1.03
2/23/2020
15
1.84
2/24/2020
15
1.88
2/25/2020
15
0.73
2/26/2020
15
0.6
2/27/2020
16
1.13
2/28/2020
16
1.31
2/29/2020
24
14.9
3/1/2020
30
2.18
3/2/2020
53
12.09
3/3/2020
73
17.11
3/4/2020
104
3.19
3/5/2020
174
2.38
3/6/2020
222
9
3/7/2020
337
19.18
3/8/2020
451
0.58
3/9/2020
3/10/2020
3/11/2020
3/12/2020
3/13/2020
3/14/2020
3/15/2020
3/16/2020
3/17/2020
3/18/2020
3/19/2020
3/20/2020
3/21/2020
3/22/2020
3/23/2020
3/24/2020
3/25/2020
3/26/2020
3/27/2020
3/28/2020
3/29/2020
3/30/2020
3/31/2020
4/1/2020
4/2/2020
4/3/2020
4/4/2020
4/5/2020
4/6/2020
4/7/2020
4/8/2020
4/9/2020
4/10/2020
4/11/2020
4/12/2020
4/13/2020
4/14/2020
4/15/2020
4/16/2020
4/17/2020
4/18/2020
4/19/2020
4/20/2020
4/21/2020
4/22/2020
4/23/2020
4/24/2020
4/25/2020
4/26/2020
4/27/2020
519
711
1109
1561
2157
2870
2968
4360
6141
8917
14157
19479
25825
33761
43850
54112
66055
84091
102276
122069
141205
162707
188724
214205
244610
276547
309699
337573
367215
397992
429686
464442
497943
527969
556522
581813
608878
637974
669272
701996
730337
756375
783716
809318
837422
871617
907908
940829
968518
990983
72
13
40
47
11
7
2.16
0.35
105
2034.2
170
91.94
206
1633.41
1
329
0.54
0
1378.66
80.25
4.03
23.87
28.45
548.46
17.43
9.96
18.79
15.27
23.82
53.35
8.93
22.85
5.19
10.62
118.48
58.91
329.41
12.53
83.93
1.22
4.81
11.16
34.96
1.21
0.61
4.47
64.7
5.93
161.75
41.5
4/28/2020
4/29/2020
4/30/2020
5/1/2020
5/2/2020
5/3/2020
5/4/2020
5/5/2020
5/6/2020
5/7/2020
5/8/2020
5/9/2020
5/10/2020
5/11/2020
5/12/2020
5/13/2020
5/14/2020
5/15/2020
5/16/2020
5/17/2020
5/18/2020
5/19/2020
1015518
1043038
1072667
1106829
1136024
1161611
1184086
1208271
1233527
1261409
1288587
1314320
1334084
1352962
1375152
1396110
1423727
1449027
1474128
1493132
1514901
1535350
0.19
1660737
1.81
22.7
21.9
24.4
78.99
42.4
152.39
182.35
176.22
0.35
2.93
0.27
0
6.51
12.89
5.22
8.39
3.81
0
90.83

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