Modeling Climate Change Global warming Assignment | Get Paper Help

Modeling Climate Change Global warming is a big deal, but it can be difficult to predict the weather ten days from now, let alone twenty years into the future. One way scientists study climate change is using computer programs that model weather patterns. In this assignment, you will use a computer model that simulates the greenhouse gas effect responsible for climate change. You will employ your knowledge of calculus to study this model and draw conclusions from it. The model we will be using is described in the Tutorial section below. You should work through the tutorial first before returning here to finish the rest of the assignment. The Assignment In Calculus, we study rates of change in a context where the answers are always neat and tidy. The real world is messy, and this assignment is about exploring rates of change in that messy environment. Write up a well-organized essay that answers each of the questions below. The essay should be at least 1000 words although I care less about the length of your essay and more about how effectively and thoroughly you answer each question. 1. What is the greenhouse gas effect, and how does the model we’re using simulate it? Make sure you include proper citations (both inline citations and a works cited page at the end of your essay). You can find citations for the model itself by clicking on “Model Info” at the bottom of the page and scrolling down to where it says “How to Cite”. For some terms like albedo, you will have to find citations elsewhere. You can use Wikipedia as a starting point, but you should cite a different source in the final paper. 2. Find a model with no clouds and no CO2, where the average global temperature does not go above 25°C in the first 5000 ticks. What were the settings for this model? Use Excel or Google Sheets to find a quadratic trendline for this model. 3. Find the derivative of your quadratic trendline, and use this to answer the following questions. • How fast is the average global temperature increasing (or decreasing) at 1000 ticks? • How fast is the average global temperature increasing (or decreasing) at 4000 ticks? • Is the rate of change in the temperature speeding up or slowing down? What does this say about the second derivative? • What will be the highest average global temperature that this model will reach? At how many ticks will this happen? Or is there a highest average global temperature? Justify your answer. • In the paper, make sure you explain how calculus was used to answer these questions. If there are graphs, include them in your answer and where appropriate, try to connect them to your explanations of the calculus. 4. Is a quadratic trendline really appropriate for modeling climate change? What could be problematic about it? Are there other types of trendlines like exponential, logarithmic, or a higher degree polynomial trendline that would be more appropriate? Pick another type of trendline that you think is a better fit and explain why. Create this trendline in Excel or Google Sheets and answer each of the questions from the previous problem again using this new trendline. How are your answers different than before? 5. Now add 100 CO2 to your model. Run the simulation again, and use Excel or Google Sheets to create two trendlines as before (one quadratic and one of another type of your choosing.) Find the derivatives, and answer the same questions as before. How does the additional 100 CO2 change your answers to these questions? 6. What assumptions has this model made? What are some factors in global warming that are not accounted for in this model? Do you think this model is realistic? 7. What is the average global temperature in degrees Celsius right now and by how much do scientists think this temperature could rise before producing catastrophic global warming? What would this model and your calculations say about this? Make sure you include proper citations for this answer. Again, this includes both inline citations and a works cited page at the end o fyour essay. • A rough draft of your essay  “Project” section on Blackboard. • The final draft of your essay is due by 11:59pm on Thursday, June 4 in the “Project” section on Blackboard.

Calculus Project – Modeling Climate Change
Global warming is a big deal, but it can be difficult to predict the weather ten days from now, let alone twenty years into the future. One way scientists study climate change is using computer programs that model weather patterns.
In this assignment, you will use a computer model that simulates the greenhouse gas effect responsible for climate change. You will employ your knowledge of calculus to study this model and draw conclusions from it.
The model we will be using is described in the Tutorial section below. You should work through the tutorial first before returning here to finish the rest of the assignment.
The Assignment
In Calculus, we study rates of change in a context where the answers are always neat and tidy. The real world is messy, and this assignment is about exploring rates of change in that messy environment. Write up a well-organized essay that answers each of the questions below. The essay should be at least 1000 words although I care less about the length of your essay and more about how effectively and thoroughly you answer each question.
1. What is the greenhouse gas effect, and how does the model we’re using simulate it? Make sure you include proper citations (both inline citations and a works cited page at the end of your essay). You can find citations for the model itself by clicking on “Model Info” at the bottom of the page and scrolling down to where it says “How to Cite”. For some terms like albedo, you will have to find citations elsewhere. You can use Wikipedia as a starting point, but you should cite a different source in the final paper.
2. Find a model with no clouds and no CO2, where the average global temperature does not go above 25°C in the first 5000 ticks. What were the settings for this model? Use Excel or Google Sheets to find a quadratic trendline for this model.
3. Find the derivative of your quadratic trendline, and use this to answer the following questions.
• How fast is the average global temperature increasing (or decreasing) at 1000 ticks?
• How fast is the average global temperature increasing (or decreasing) at 4000 ticks?
• Is the rate of change in the temperature speeding up or slowing down? What does this say about the second derivative?
• What will be the highest average global temperature that this model will reach? At how many ticks will this happen? Or is there a highest average global temperature? Justify your answer.
• In the paper, make sure you explain how calculus was used to answer these questions. If there are graphs, include them in your answer and where appropriate, try to connect them to your explanations of the calculus.
4. Is a quadratic trendline really appropriate for modeling climate change? What could be problematic about it? Are there other types of trendlines like exponential, logarithmic, or a higher degree polynomial
trendline that would be more appropriate? Pick another type of trendline that you think is a better fit and explain why. Create this trendline in Excel or Google Sheets and answer each of the questions from the previous problem again using this new trendline. How are your answers different than before?
5. Now add 100 CO2 to your model. Run the simulation again, and use Excel or Google Sheets to create two trendlines as before (one quadratic and one of another type of your choosing.) Find the derivatives, and answer the same questions as before. How does the additional 100 CO2 change your answers to these questions?
6. What assumptions has this model made? What are some factors in global warming that are not accounted for in this model? Do you think this model is realistic?
7. What is the average global temperature in degrees Celsius right now and by how much do scientists think this temperature could rise before producing catastrophic global warming? What would this model and your calculations say about this? Make sure you include proper citations for this answer. Again, this includes both inline citations and a works cited page at the end o fyour essay.
• A rough draft of your essay is due by 11:59pm on Friday, May 29 in the “Project” section on Blackboard.
• The final draft of your essay is due by 11:59pm on Thursday, June 4 in the “Project” section on Blackboard.
Tutorial
Getting Started
The model we are going to use is built with software called NetLogo, but you can run it in your web browser at the following web page.
http://tinyurl.com/calc-project-global-warming
The model looks like this:
Let’s go through each of the buttons and sliders on this screen.
• First, you need to click setup to create a new model. The screen on the right will show a picture of the Earth with a blue sky and grey clouds.
• Beneath the setup button are two sliders labeled sun-brightness and albedo. These control how much sunshine and albedo there are in your model.
• Beneath these buttons are four buttons that let you add more clouds and CO2 to the model.
• Once you’ve setup the model and determined the amount of sunshine, albedo, clouds, and CO2, click go to start the model.
• The Global Temperature graph at the bottom keeps track of the global temperature (in degrees Celsius) as the model progresses.
• The normal speed slider at the top can be adjusted to slow down or speed up your model.
• At any point, you can click go again to stop the model, and setup to reset it.
• Setup and start a model, and then click on watch a ray to trace a focus on a single sunray. This can be helpful for understanding how the model works.
How the Model Works
You can read about how the model works by scrolling down and clicking on “Model Info”.
This section also contains information about how to cite this model in your essay. Make sure you use proper citations (both inline citations and a works cited page at the end of your essay.)
Getting Data and Analyzing It
You should play around with the model to figure out how it works. Once you’ve done this, you may want to record some data to analyze it. To do this, click on the three horizontal bars in the upper right corner of the Global Temperature graph and select Download CSV.
This lets you save the data from the model to a spreadsheet that you can open and study in Excel or Google Sheets. I personally prefer Excel, but in this tutorial, I am going to explain how to use Google Sheets since you may not have Excel on your home computer.
Log into drive.google.com, click on the large “+ New” button in the upper left corner, and select “File Upload”. Upload the CSV file that you just downloaded to Google Sheets.
Double-click on the file, and select “Open with Google Sheets”.
Highlight the first two columns by holding down the shift key and clicking on the A and B at the top. Then, in the Insert menu, select Chart.
In the Chart Editor menu that pops up, select “Customize”. Scroll down, and click the “trendline” checkbox.
You can create a number of different types of trendlines (or best-fit curves) like a best-fit exponential curve, a best-fit line, or a best-fit quadratic curve (polynomial degree 2.) Then, scroll down to “Label” and select “Use Equation”. Sheets will print the formula for the trendline at the top of the graph.