Judicial Behavior

Judicial Behavior
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Dr. Alex Badas
March 5, 2020
1 Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Super Tuesday Analysis
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March 5, 2020 from 2:30-3:30 in SEC 102
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Elizabeth Simas, UH Political Science Jason Casellas, UH Political Science
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
15% of your final grade
Six pages in length (I don’t care if you go over)
Due April 21
Submit a hardcopy and upload a copy to turn it in
Failure to submit both results in a 1.5 point score reduction
All instances of plagiarism will be reported
Cite all sources
APA style preferred
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Select 1 Supreme Court pending case from the October 2019
term; predict how three Justices will vote in that case. Will
they vote to affirm or reverse?
Where to find cases : SCOTUSblog
Justify your prediction based on what we have learned in class
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Introduction
Give a brief summary of the case
1 What legal issue is involved?
2 What outcome does the petitioner want? Is this a liberal or
conservative outcome? Explain
3 What outcome does the respondent want? Is this a liberal or
conservative outcome? Explain
Can find this information on SCOTUSblog website; briefs and
summaries
About 1.5 pages
Do not copy from briefs or website directly
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
What information will you use to make your predictions?
Summarize and explain the research
Maybe want to go ahead on the syllabus for additional
information
OK to go beyond class content, but make sure research is
social science and from credible sources
About 2 pages
Be sure to cite all sources
Be sure to rely on social science research to justify your
predictions
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
What information will you use to make your predictions?
Summarize and explain the research
Maybe want to go ahead on the syllabus for additional
information
OK to go beyond class content, but make sure research is
social science and from credible sources
About 2 pages
Be sure to cite all sources
Be sure to rely on social science research to justify your
predictions
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
What information should you use?
Ideology; behavior during oral arguments; amicus briefs; is the
executive involved in the case; are gender, racial, or ethnic
identities salient to the case; are the Justices asked to overturn
precedent; are the Justices asked to overturn an act of
Congress; public opinion;
There is a lot of potential information to draw upon
Choose what you think is best and justify it
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
What information should you use?
Ideology; behavior during oral arguments; amicus briefs; is the
executive involved in the case; are gender, racial, or ethnic
identities salient to the case; are the Justices asked to overturn
precedent; are the Justices asked to overturn an act of
Congress; public opinion;
There is a lot of potential information to draw upon
Choose what you think is best and justify it
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Individual predictions : Will the Justice vote to affirm or
reverse?
Apply what you explained in the section above
Be specific in your applications
About 1 page for each Justice (3 pages total)
Can use difference information for different Justices
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Individual predictions : Will the Justice vote to affirm or
reverse?
Apply what you explained in the section above
Be specific in your applications
About 1 page for each Justice (3 pages total)
Can use difference information for different Justices
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
We know that judicial decision-making is more than ideology
If you do not think a particular trait or piece of information
you do not need to discuss it in your paper
Avoid unnecessary fluff — you do not need to give
biographical information about the Justices (i.e., where they
went to law school or where they grew up)
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
We know that judicial decision-making is more than ideology
If you do not think a particular trait or piece of information
you do not need to discuss it in your paper
Avoid unnecessary fluff — you do not need to give
biographical information about the Justices (i.e., where they
went to law school or where they grew up)
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
We know that judicial decision-making is more than ideology
If you do not think a particular trait or piece of information
you do not need to discuss it in your paper
Avoid unnecessary fluff — you do not need to give
biographical information about the Justices (i.e., where they
went to law school or where they grew up)
The Supreme Court Database
The Supreme Court database includes information on how the
Justices have voted in every case since 1936
Includes information on case-level factors such as issue, types
of petitioners and types of respondents
If you know how to do cross-tabs in Stata, SPSS, or R you
can use the database to determine how often a Justice votes
liberally or conservatively on certain issues and use this in your
paper
If you are more knowledgable about statistics and want to use
the Supreme Court database to create a predictive model for
your Justice that is perfectly acceptable too
The Supreme Court Database
The Supreme Court database includes information on how the
Justices have voted in every case since 1936
Includes information on case-level factors such as issue, types
of petitioners and types of respondents
If you know how to do cross-tabs in Stata, SPSS, or R you
can use the database to determine how often a Justice votes
liberally or conservatively on certain issues and use this in your
paper
If you are more knowledgable about statistics and want to use
the Supreme Court database to create a predictive model for
your Justice that is perfectly acceptable too
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
I will read 1 completed draft but you must submit it to me 2
weeks prior to due date
Campus writing center is a very helpful resource
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Any questions?
Judicial Behavior
Supreme Court Prediction Paper
Dr. Alex Badas
March 5, 2020