FIN 321 UC San Diego Small Minus Big SMB Statistical Analysis Economics Project The goal of the project is to gain knowledge in using statistical softwares

FIN 321 UC San Diego Small Minus Big SMB Statistical Analysis Economics Project The goal of the project is to gain knowledge in using statistical softwares to conduct an empirical analysis of a firm. Specific goals are for students to 1. become familiar with sources of economic and financial information and in particular the Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) Database 2. practice their writing skills, 3. develop hands on, statistical estimation and modeling skills using excel SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY
College of Business Administration
FIN 321 (Managerial Economics)
Project
Introduction
The Primary goal of the project is for students to gain comfort in using statistical software
packages to conduct an empirical analysis of a particular firm. Specific goals are for students to
(1) become familiar with sources of economic and financial information and in particular the
Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) Database, (2) practice their writing skills, (3) develop
hands on, statistical estimation and modeling skills using excel (e.g., data analysis, regression
analysis). The project is an individual assignment and late submissions will not be accepted.
Please provide explanations for answers to all questions.
Background material: Chapter 4, 5 in McGuigan, Moyer and Harris
PLEASE FIRST SELECT PUBLIC COMPANY TO ANALYZE. USING YOUR WEB
BROWSER, ANSWER ALL OF THE QUESTIONS THAT FOLLOW FOR THAT
PARTICULAR COMPANY. THE CHOICE OF COMPANY IS UP TO YOU. BUT,
PLEASE EMAIL ME TO LET ME KNOW OF YOUR SELECTION AND MAKE SURE
THAT YOU HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO ANSWER ALL OF THE QUESTIONS.
COMPANY SELECTION IS FIRST COME FIRST SERVE. IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO
KEEP THREE OR FOUR COMPANIES IN MIND BECAUSE YOU ARE TO FIND A
COMPANY THAT HAS ENOUGH PUBLICALLY AVAILABLE DATA TO ANSWER
EACH QUESTION. THERE IS NO NEED TO INCLUDE DATA OR SPECIFIC
PROGRAMS USED TO ANSWER QUESTIONS, BUT, IN ALL YOUR RESPONSES,
PLEASE INCLUDE EXPLANATIONS OF STEPS CARRIED OUT. IT IS OKAY TO
WORK WITH OTHER PEOPLE, BUT YOUR EXPLANATIONS SHOULD BE IN
YOUR OWN WORDS.
1. Data collection from WRDS database
Using your web browser, please go to the WRDS URL (http://wrds.wharton.upenn.edu) and
collect data on the variables for the risk free rate, small minus big, high minus low, and the
excess market return for the firm your selected. When you collect the data, please select the
monthly frequency and the range spanning from 1980 through 2017. Using your class notes and
the descriptions provided by WRDS, please provide a brief description of each variable included
in the study. Please save these variables in an excel spreadsheet. Please download and save stock
prices for your firm spanning the same period and at the monthly frequency. Please compute
stock price returns as the ratio of the change in the stock price for each period with respect to the
previous period to the value in the previous period This will serve as the base case from which
we will complete the rest of the project.
2. Regression Analysis
For this question, you will need the data analysis tool pack in excel, please download it to your
version of excel for your operating system before answering the questions listed below.
a. Please, separately, determine the estimated regression line for a regression with the stock
return as the dependent variable and the following list as independent variables:
a. Excess market return
b. Small minus big
c. High minus low
b. Please determine the estimated regression line with the stock return as the dependent
variable and the risk free rate, excess market return, small minus big, and high minus low
as the independent variables in one single regression model.
c. Which regression coefficients are statistically significant? Is the overall model
significant?
d. What is the adjusted R-squared for the model? How does it compare to the adjusted Rsquared for each model estimated in a? Is your answer to part b different from your
answers to part a? Why or Why not?
3. Forecasting
a. Using only data covering the period 1980 through 2000, please determine the estimated
regression line with the stock return as the dependent variable and the risk free rate,
excess market return, small minus big, and high minus low as the independent variables
in one single regression model.
b. Please use the model to predict stock price return from 2001 to 2017 and compute the
root mean squared error using the deviation between the actual stock price return over
this period and the model-predicted stock price return over the same period.
4. Discussion
Using your web browser and your own judgement and your class notes, please interpret and
discuss the strength of the relationship between stock price returns for your firm and each of the
three variables. In particular, please consider whether or not you think that the three variables do
a good job in explaining and predicting stock returns for your firm. Please also explain why you
think the model produced all results from questions 2 and 3 that it did.

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